Are breakthrough technologies coming in the wireless space? Absolutely, but it's difficult to predict how long they'll take to make the jump from the research lab to the enterprise. This transition is both a technical issue and a market issue. Even if you could introduce a new WLAN technology that blows the doors off 802.11, it's questionable whether you could easily overcome the market momentum of Wi-Fi. For many vendors looking to increase profitability, it's all about tweaking existing technologies and enhancing capabilities while maintaining backward compatibility.
Despite the negative effects on innovation attributable to market inertia, there are indeed some interesting new wireless technologies worth watching in 2003. Look for smart antenna technology to make a splash, enhancing the range and scalability of both WLANs and cellular data services. You can also look forward to technical improvements that will help overcome the line-of-sight shackles that have dampened enthusiasm for fixed wireless as a last-mile broadband access solution. And UWB (ultra-wideband) technology, with its promise of 100-Mbps-plus performance, may eventually supplant Wi-Fi and Bluetooth for some limited-range applications.
In sports, certain barriers seem almost impossible to break, like throwing a baseball faster than 100 miles per hour or running a 40-yard dash in less than four seconds. You can have the best conditioning program around, but limitations of human physiology get in the way. In the world of wireless, limitations are tied to physics, and while there are plenty of physical laws that limit the potential of wireless communications, we haven't even begun to scratch the surface of most wireless communication technologies. That will make for some interesting possibilities in 2003 and beyond.
Dave Molta is a senior technology editor of Network Computing. He is also an assistant professor in the School of Information Studies at Syracuse University and director of the Center for Emerging Network Technologies. Molta's experience includes 15 years in IT and network management. Write to him at [email protected].
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