The Fall of Fibre Channel: Page 7 of 16

Time to get specific. While IP technologies have absolutely no chance of
displacing Fibre Channel in the data center today, there are two other
places where they will make immediate inroads:

• First, for use in building distributed storage networks, or backing up data
  between remote locations. Compared to the two other options companies now
  have for this application, the business case for IP in this topology is a
  complete no-brainer. Installing an IP storage switch to shoot data over an
  ISP network can be done for a tiny fraction of the amount it takes to do the
  same thing by purchasing Fibre Channel equipment and leasing dark fiber. It’s also an order of magnitude faster than the other option: using CTAM (Chevy
  truck access method).
• The second place where IP storage will take off is in smaller sites and
  server farms that could use a bit of a performance push, but where it would
  be way too expensive to deploy Fibre Channel equipment. In these environs,
  IP-based technology will provide a perfect “SANs for the rest of us”

  solution, allowing smaller companies to enjoy the sort of performance
  benefits now only enjoyed by Fortune’s Gang of 100.

In other words, IP is set to “top and tail” the SAN market, making small but
tactical inroads into Fibre Channel territory.

These small victories are important because they will provide a technology
apprenticeship for IP storage – during which time vendors can iron out
product problems, standards committees clear up the FCIP, SOIP, iSCSI, iFCP
mess, and network managers get some familiarity with the technology (see SNIA's FCIP Group Debuts).

How long will this period last? Two to three years. That’s when another
event will kick IP storage into overdrive: the general availability of 10-Gbit/s Ethernet products. These devices will for the first time provide the
infrastructure muscle for IP to take on Fibre Channel in the meat of the
market: the data center (see Gigabit Ethernet: Hope vs. Hype).