Those upgrades, which will have to happen in the 2004-05 timeframe, said DiDio, will occur before Linux has had a chance to gain a major foothold in the enterprise.
"That's bad news for Linux," she said. "Enterprises don't have the time or the inclination to wait for Linux to catch up [with Windows or Unix]."
With upgrades likely to continue Windows' dominance, it'll be another three to five years -- until the next upgrade cycle -- before Linux will get a good, long look by large companies.
Not all the news is ugly for Linux, however. Linux can deliver a dramatic increase in ROI and lower TCO for some firms, said DiDio. But they're primarily smaller shops in the engineering and scientific vertical markets, where the staff is extremely technical, and can create its own custom applications, build its own boxes, and do its own support without resorting to Linux vendors or developers.
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