Mark Levitt, analyst for IDC, said Sun has yet to prove it's making significant inroads into Microsoft's desktop monopoly.
"We see examples, and we see governments pushing back on Microsoft licensing and trying to open up to Linux and other software," Levitt said. "But it's hard to tell the exact level of momentum."
IDC expects the number of Linux desktops worldwide to increase to 10 million by 2007 from 3.4 million in 2002. That number, however, is miniscule when placed in the context of an estimated billion PC users by 2007.
"Those numbers are trivial," Paul DeGroot, analyst for market researcher Directions on Microsoft, said. "It's hardly worth collecting the stats."
DeGroot said a reasonable case can be made that Linux and Office alternatives will increase in popularity on the desktop over time. "But it's not clear if they'll take any market share from Windows," he said.
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