"Microsoft is going a tremendous job of integration as it approaches the Longhorn wave of products," said Wilcox. "Because they're intertwined, a delay in one, such as Yukon, impacts others," ranging from Longhorn to the next version of Office (which was to coincide with the release of Longhorn).
The domino effect then ripples through Microsoft's product line. "If Longhorn ships later because Yukon ships later, then others slip," he said.
Wilcox now believes that Longhorn's release date could slip as far as into 2007; previously, he had been betting that it would be during 2006, a year after Microsoft's announced roll-out date.
Delays like that -- years between new versions of major, money-making products such as its Windows operating system -- will make it tougher for Microsoft to keep Linux at bay. "If it does nothing, or releases nothing for two or three more years," said Wilcox, more companies may turn to Linux as an alternative.
The solution, he said, is for Microsoft to do a better job of evangelizing Windows XP, its current desktop operating system. There are signs that Microsoft is doing just that, Wilcox said, citing the upcoming Windows XP Service Pack 2 (SP2) and the rumored Windows XP Reloaded, a possible major revision to the OS during 2004.
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