"I'm dubious about 2006," said Wilcox.
"Let's assume that Microsoft ships an alpha of Longhorn in 2004; it's a fair bet that it will be six to eight months before it hits some kind of early, or internal beta. That puts us in the second half of 2005," said Wilcox.
"That would be consistent with the already announced delayed releases of Yukon and Whidbey. Those products need to be completed before serious work on Longhorn can be done."
Earlier this month, Microsoft said it would not release SQL Server 2005 -- once code named "Yukon" -- until the first half of next year, not during 2004, as it had previously claimed. Likewise, it rolled back the release of Visual Studio 2005, which had been labeled "Whidbey," into next year.
If Microsoft manages an internal beta of Longhorn before the end of 2005, Wilcox went on, Microsoft could still get Longhorn out by the end of 2006. "But that would be tough."
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