My Five 2011 Predictions: Page 2 of 2

Unified Communications: 1.) The number of enterprises using UC won't change by more than 5 percent. 2.) The number that have no plans increases by 10 percent. Our own research shows  [subscription required] that only 30 percent of enterprises have adopted UC, while 39 percent have no plans.

The remaining 31 percent are planning to deploy in six to 24 months. UC has some fantastic features for staying in touch with employees and collaborating over long distances, but the returns are often too soft to quantify, and the capital, operational and education outlay is large. That doesn't change in 2011. Perhaps in the years ahead, as users get used to video anywhere, anytime on mobile platforms, we will start to see a real uptake in UC.

Fiber Channel over Token Ring Predictions: 1.) Market penetration will be 0 percent due to lack of products in the market. 2.) Wikipedia will still refuse to host an FCoTR entry (or no one will want to put it back up). 3.) Some people still won't get it.

The main issue with FCoTR is that Ethernet was designed to be a lossy protocol, and that is how it works best. To make it lossless, it required no fewer than four fundamental changes to how Ethernet works. Maybe three, since congestion notification is a hot debate. With Token Ring, you had guaranteed capacity and zero loss, and you didn't have to deal with that steenking ATM cell tax. It's a technology past its prime, but that doesn't make it any less useful. A geek can dream.