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Will Compaq's Downturn Nix HP Deal?: Page 2 of 3

Kumar doubts that business lost to the disruptions will be recaptured in ensuing quarters. He notes the huge revenue shortfall “will completely mask the purported cost savings” of the merged companies, and he believes there is “a high probability” the merger will not be consummated.

From the storage perspective of both companies, there are too many variables to determine whether the merger would add or subtract value. The combined company would certainly have a broader range of offerings.

“Compaq is the leader of the bottom half of the storage business and is trying to come up,” says Jim Porter, president of Disk/Trend Inc., a market research firm. He notes HP’s reseller relationship with Hitachi Ltd., a company with very high customer satisfaction ratings, would put the merged entity on solid ground at the high end.

But he also points out myriad issues on the downside. For instance, some enterprise customers, who may not like either one of the merger partners, may switch to other vendors with comprehensive offerings, such as IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM)
or Sun Microsystems Inc. (Nasdaq: SUNW).

Other sources say the CEOs of both Compaq and HP are relatively new on the job and neither is experienced at a large merger. Some say HP, which used to be slow moving and bureaucratic, is changing rapidly under CEO Carly Fiorina. But it may be too soon to say how she'll handle this type of deal.