For a parallel example of how a competitive market can evolve when left alone, look no further than the database sector, where Oracle and IBM have staked their leadership positions through innovation and acquisitions. In databases as in ERP, Microsoft is clawing its way up from the low end to challenge the Big Two's hegemony. The likes of Teradata (data warehousing) and Versant (object databases) are formidable niche competitors.
Yes, it's galling for Ellison, a protagonist in the government's antitrust case against Microsoft, to now stump for a hands-off approach. Oracle is even leaning on its archrival to disclose its ambitious plans for high-end business applications, to prove to the DOJ that there's far more to the market than three vendors. Microsoft already has said it expects to grow its Business Solutions unit to $10 billion in revenue by 2010, up from $600 million today.
So let the fires of capitalism burn; it's the surest way to clear the business apps market for new innovation and growth. Letting Oracle have its way will disrupt many PeopleSoft shops, but it will also keep SAP on its toes and allow Microsoft, Siebel or some combination of vendors to rise up.
Rob Preston is editor in chief of NETWORK COMPUTING. Write to him at [email protected].
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